Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 3.235780 3.833442 4.498068 5.290159 6.206565 7.231520 8.462708
2025-07-13 2.501582 3.348222 4.394688 5.774321 7.535304 9.696805 12.538409
2025-07-20 1.936719 2.878815 4.152627 5.979403 8.506199 11.848059 16.565967
2025-07-27 1.571519 2.558555 4.000047 6.219646 9.501958 14.116840 21.018544
2025-08-03 1.258106 2.226155 3.742153 6.229619 10.131202 15.916686 25.009285
2025-08-10 0.983501 1.883620 3.389053 6.009576 10.348373 17.100919 28.197945
2025-08-17 0.764609 1.580198 3.032456 5.705087 10.358710 17.931124 30.893398
2025-08-24 0.627815 1.391533 2.831355 5.617439 10.691531 19.279667 34.515786
2025-08-31 0.523725 1.240880 2.667916 5.562016 11.056959 20.700093 38.375381
2025-09-07 0.469549 1.180182 2.662924 5.795474 11.960811 23.121037 44.153333
2025-09-14 0.404964 1.081281 2.562113 5.822204 12.473301 24.889068 48.938120
2025-09-21 0.350369 0.992336 2.465122 5.838328 12.959845 26.646558 53.850564
2025-09-28 0.299468 0.902172 2.353575 5.816057 13.386353 28.372182 58.945029
2025-10-05 0.287187 0.909471 2.467545 6.307224 14.937978 32.425226 68.837065
2025-10-12 0.259375 0.867819 2.457539 6.515886 15.914899 35.440266 76.992446
2025-10-19 0.237143 0.836387 2.466884 6.770498 17.021288 38.818669 86.156684
2025-10-26 0.206850 0.772551 2.380632 6.779444 17.574657 41.103403 93.305650
2025-11-02 0.171723 0.682994 2.207320 6.541211 17.523683 42.099663 97.878116
2025-11-09 0.139525 0.592692 2.012306 6.212140 17.209343 42.485670 101.186025
2025-11-16 0.119509 0.538691 1.911208 6.117381 17.453553 44.126663 107.323069
2025-11-23 0.103352 0.493691 1.827798 6.057478 17.776208 45.971584 114.054882
2025-11-30 0.096506 0.483246 1.851615 6.309648 18.936002 49.857850 125.654059
2025-12-07 0.085647 0.452568 1.802755 6.338514 19.505801 52.395687 134.372873